Script Title: Introduction to the 15th Burlington Race Method Version: 0.1 Hello, Racers and Racer Mentors! I am Stan Pope. I have been analyzing and evaluating Pinewood Derby Racing Methods for about 25 years. I am here to introduce you to an exciting new way to conduct a District Pinewood Derby Race. For pack races, where there are just a few racers in each division, there are lots of ways to run the races. When the number of racers in each division goes way up, as it does in district races, those same methods result in more time spent waiting without increasing the amount of time racing. The 15th Burlington Race Method will radically increase the amount of time the boys spend racing and reduce the time they spend waiting. Here are some measures for comparing various racing methods: 1 - Accuracy. Do the objectively fastest racers win the trophies? 2 - Fault Tolerance. What effect do errors by the driver, the staff or the equipment have on the accuracy of trophy results? 3 - Excitement Ramp-up. When during the course of racing are the trophies determined? 4 - Auditability. How well can the audience tell if the results are correct? 5 - Racing Time Ratios. What is the ratio of "racing time" to "waiting time"? And what is the ratio of "racing time" to "total event time"? The 15th Burlington method rates very high on all of these measures except #3, where it lags only slightly. To help show how these measures impact the decisions on how to run our district races, let's review the history of Pinewood Derby Racing in our District. Up until the mid 1990's, our district used a Charted Double Elimination competition. Its features were: -The Derby Chair usually spent the day (and night) prior to Race Day preparing large paper charts. -Racers went through the inspection at the track. -Roll of racers called to check chart against racers present, and chart updated. -Racers called to starting line in pairs -When any racer has accumulated two losses, he has finished competition. (25% finish without a contested heat win.) -Minimum Number of Contested Runs per Entrant: 2 -Average Number of Contested Runs per Entrant: 3.9 (based on 60 entrants). Typically 3.9 heats in 2 hours or 1 heat every 31 minutes. -Duration of racing for each group: 1-1/2 to 3 hours depending upon number of entrants. Issues: -Accuracy in awarding 3rd through 5th place trophies "iffy" - Lots of uncontested runs (byes) in the first round. Assessment: 1 - Accuracy. Fair 2 - Fault Tolerance. Fair 3 - Excitement Ramp-up. Excellent; Last race determined who wins 1st place. 4 - Auditability. Good 5 - Racing Time Ratios. Fair In the mid 1990's, I approached the then District Pinewood Derby Chairman about using the No-Chart Quintuple Elimination method. Chairman agreed to run one track that way to prove method. Its features were -No prepared charts -Racers went through common inspection line. (consistency!) -Racers with equal scores lined up to race in threes. -When any racer has accumulated five losses, he has finished competition. (12% finish without a heat win.) -Minimum Number of Contested Runs per Entrant: 5 -Average Number of Contested Runs per Entrant: 7.35 (Few uncontested runs) -More heats per hour for each racer. Typically 7.3 heats in 3 hours or 1 heat every 25 minutes. -Duration of racing for each group: 2 to 3-1/2 hours depending upon number of entrants and number of tracks used. -Better accuracy in awarding trophies Issues: -More staff intensive than Charted Double Elimination. -Long duration even when increased the number of tracks used to two... improved, but still slow. Assessment: 1 - Accuracy. Excellent 2 - Fault Tolerance. Better, but still Fair 3 - Excitement Ramp-up. Excellent; Last race determined who wins 1st place. 4 - Auditability. Good 5 - Racing Time Ratios. Better, but still Fair One year in the mid 2000's, we ran a timed event. Its features were -4 lane track used. -Computer-track interface for record keeping. -4 heats per racer -Duration of racing for each group: about 1 to 2 hours. Typically 4 heats in 1-1/2 hours or 1 heat every 22 minutes. Issues: -Not fault tolerant ... undetected equipment malfunction led to awarding 1st place trophy to an entrant who consistently finished 3rd or 4th in his heats. Error only detected and acknowledged after a knowledgable audience member persisted enough to have the data reviewed. -Too few heats per racer. -About 65% finished without a heat win. Assessment: 1 - Accuracy. Excellent 2 - Fault Tolerance. Fair 3 - Excitement Ramp-up. Poor 4 - Auditability. Poor (Audience usually can't tell if results are accurate.) 5 - Racing Time Ratios. Fair. Racing duration shorter, but fewer races per entrant. Poor when viewed against total entrant time. Early in 2011, I approached the Derby Chairman about using 15th Burlington method. Since it is space and equipment intensive, it would affect the entire racing schedule so the "one age group trial" used before would not work. I suggested a separate trial run of the method involving about 80 or so racers from last year. My reasons for making this suggestion are that the 15th Burlington Method retains the valuable features incorporated in Wotamalo District racing for years, plus provides: 1. A lot more racing for each Scout 2. Shorter and more predictable duration So, how does 15th Burlington Racing Method work? All entrants are inspected as we have in the past. Entrants are randomly assigned to a track for their first heat. Racing proceeds in three phases: -Preliminary Racing during which all entrants race. -Finalist Selection during which all entrants race. -Finals during which only the approximately 15 finalists race. During Preliminary Racing and Finalist Selection, several tracks are used. Our goal is to have no fewer than one track per 8 to 12 entrants. So if we have 80 entrants, we would need 5 to 7 tracks. The tracks are arranged side-by-side with the finish lines near the audience. The track at one end is called the GOLD Track and the track at the other end is called the SILVER Track. Preliminary Racing: Racers race in groups of three on each track. The draw for lanes includes an extra racer to help randomize the order. The winner of the heat moves "up" one track toward the GOLD Track for his next heat. 2nd place stays on the same track for his next heat. 3rd place moves "down" one track toward the SILVER Track for his next heat. If a heat has a tie, the racers involved in the tie are treated as though they had that place alone. (Note: If there is a two-way tie for first, then there is NO 2nd place! If there is a two-way tie for 2nd, then there is NO 3rd place.) In summary, racers move both directions. Preliminary Racing lasts a fixed amount of time, long enough that each racer accumulates well more than enough heats to move from the SILVER Track to the GOLD Track if he is worthy of being a finalist. Simulations indicate that one hour is sufficient to overcome some errors, some random results, and poor initial match-ups, and that during that time, each racer will run about 12 heats. During Finalist Selection, the same racers keep right on racing, but there are two scoring changes. 1. A racer finishing 1st on the GOLD Track becomes a Finalist and is removed from Finalist Selection competition. 2. A racer who finishes 3rd on any track stays on the same track for his next heat. In summary, racers only move toward the GOLD Track. Finalist Selection Racing lasts for a fixed number of heats on the GOLD Track. During that time each racer will run about 3 or 4 heats. Finals Racing can be done a variety of ways, but I recommend that it be conducted on a separate, neutral track and consist of three timed runs per racer, once in each lane, and that the cars be ranked for trophies according to the total of their heat times. Its features are -No prepared charts for the vast majority of racers. -Multiple tracks used, about 1 track per each 8 to 12 racers in the group, plus one track that is only used for Finals. -Usually, one racer finishes without a win, sometimes none, sometimes 2 or 3. (Cubmaster car invoked!) -Minimum and Average Number of Contested Runs per Entrant: 15+. -Way more heats per hour for each racer: 15+ heats in about 80 minutes or 1 heat for each racer every 5 minutes. -Duration of racing for each group: 1-1/2 hours plus about 30 minutes for finals. -Accuracy in awarding trophies comparable to Quintuple Elimination. Maybe better. -Simpler and less staff intensive than Quintuple Elimination. Issues: 15 Heats is at the upper limit for effective graphite lubrication, whereas oil usually lasts much longer. But oil is more expensive. Best treatment of wheels and axles for oil is much more expensive (>$100). With graphite, late heat performance may depend partly on how well the axles and wheel bores were polished. Recommendation: Limit lubricant to graphite and enforce by application during inspection. Assessment: 1 - Accuracy. Excellent 2 - Fault Tolerance. Excellent during Preliminary Racing and Finalist Selection. Good. Because the use of timed racing is very limited and focus is heightened, there are fewer staff to train, and results can be double checked and sanity checked to eliminate most (hopefully all) faults. 3 - Excitement Ramp-up. Very Good through finalists selection; Finalists run timed competition, so no "ramp-up" during finals. 4 - Auditability. Good through finalist selection. 5 - Racing Time Ratios. Excellent If you have questions or concerns about the 15th Burlington Racing Method, please review the web page at http://www.stanpope.net/bubblesort.htm. If you still have questions, contact me via email at 15thBurlington@stanpope.net. ============= Resource stuff below Not included in script! =================== I believe that the most important goal of our District Pinewood Derby is to invigorate Racing as a part of the Pack Program. Overview: Pic of 6 tracks showing dispositions during Preliminary racing Pic of one track showing disposition during Preliminary racing Pic of one track showing disposition during Finalist Selection Track at one end called GOLD and at the other end called SILVER. Racers on each track race in threes Racers move between tracks according to their last heat result: 1st moves toward GOLD, 3rd moves toward SILVER. Preliminary racing continues until time expires, typically 1 hour. Then Finalist Selection racing begins Racers move between tracks according to their last heat result: 1st moves toward GOLD, 2nd & 3rd stay. Racing continues until 12 to 15 racers have placed 1st on the GOLD track. GOLD Track winners become finalists and are removed from Selection racing. Everyone races until last finalist has been selected. Typically, no more than one racer finishes the day without a heat win. (Silver track has one racer who may not have won a heat all day. Racers on other tracks have almost certainly won at least one heat during the day. (It is highly improbable that a racer finishes 3rd few enough times that he doesn't reach the SILVER track and finishes 2nd all the other times.) Finalists run timed heat schedule and are ranked by total heat time for trophy award. Most "fatal flaws" in cars can be addressed during racing and the car returned to competition. (See "Absence from track") Rules considerations: Lubricants - Dry Graphite only ... enforced by graphite application during inspection (racer's choice ... his or ours). (Racing will approach the usual graphite lifespan, placing a greater emphasis on axle and wheel bore polish. Oil would have longer lifespan, but is more expensive AND special surface treatments to optimize performance with oil are really expensive.) Absence from track - Loss of track position for absence: 1 for first 7 minutes, 1 more for each additional 5 minutes. Will not lose position beyond 4th fastest track. (Reasons might include restroom breaks, car repair/improvement breaks.) Draw for Lanes - Special Draw to avoid successive "race in next heat" passes: 1st in line draws from 3 lane tokens, Pass token added, Next three draw. "15th Burlington" solves several problems. 1. It is open-ended in regards to time. "Prelim" stops when the clock says "stop", not when some predefined sequence of racing says "we're done." So, it should be easier to stay "on schedule." 2. The boy's time efficiency, i.e. "time racing" / ("time racing" + "time waiting"), is one of the highest of any method I've seen. Moreover, their "total time efficiency", i.e. "time racing" / ("time riding to and from the event" + "time in inspection" + "time waiting" + "time racing") is really excellent... because they actually spend a lot of time racing. Compare the "total time efficiency" for 15th Burlington to, for instance, making four timed runs! 3. Accuracy in trophy assignment is still very good. Presentation 2. "How We Know it Works" First, I subjected the method to detailed mathematical analysis and process analysis. The theory is sound. a. The number of cars on each track tends to stay nearly constant, but is disturbed slightly if tied heats occur. b. With lock-step operation, a multiple of 3 cars on each track, and simple 3-token draw, the racers would be limited to racing only a fraction of the other racers, no matter how long they raced. That would reduce the accuracy of trophy awards unless lots more racers were finalists. Race procedures avoid these issues. Then, I ran manual simulations using dice and a deck of playing cards to observe whether the fastest cars became finalists. It works if the rules are followed at least almost all the time! The system is much more "fault tolerant" (for errors committed either by racers or by track officials) than either QE, DE or Timed Racing. Show link to simulation procedure. Show clip of running the simulation. Finally, I "put on my hacker hat" and looked for ways that I could "game the system", i.e. win with an inferior car while still obeying all the rules (or at least appearing to do so). I found and closed two exposures. Did I find all the loopholes? I think so, but I will welcome enlightenment. Initial track assignment: Give numbered track slips to each racer as he finishes inspection. Slips arranged 1-2-3-4---n-1-2-3 ... Late arrivals start on SILVER Track or randomly on bottom N-3 tracks. Initial Speech: (short and sweet) As you finished inspection, you were each assigned a track on which to race your first heat. Here is the plan for racing during the next hour of Preliminary Racing: Which tracks you race on next is determined by your finish place in your last heat: When you finish 1st in your heat, you will move one track toward the GOLD Track. When you finish 2nd in your heat, you will stay on the same track. When you finish 3rd in your heat, you will move one track toward the SILVER Track. In each case you join at the end of the short line of waiting racers. You will be racing often, so stay alert. The design is for each racer to run at least every 5 minutes! The more quickly you follow instructions, the more racing you will get. If your car develops a problem, you may take it to the pits to repair. There is a small penalty. You may not add lubricant or weight (beyond 5 ounces), but you may make other adjustments! If you do this, check out with your Track Staff before leaving. Return to that same Staff member for instruction. At the end of the hour, stay where you are. Everybody will continue racing, but the rules change slightly. We will remind you of those changes at that time. Everybody, Good Luck! And Good Racing! 2nd Hour Speech: Congratulations! You survived the Preliminary Round of Wotamalo Racing! But stay where you are. Here is the plan for racing now for Finalist Selection: Start where you finished the hour of Preliminary Racing. Which tracks you race on next is determined by your finish place in your last heat: When you finish 1st in your heat, you will move one track toward the GOLD Track. When you finish 2nd or 3rd in your heat, you will stay on the same track. Nobody moves toward the SILVER Track. In each case you join at the end of the short line of waiting racers. If you raced on the GOLD Track and finished 1st there, you are a Finalist! Park your car and wait for the rest of the 15 Finalists to be selected. You will be racing often, so stay alert. The design is for each racer to run at least every 5 minutes! The more quickly you follow instructions, the more racing you will get. If your car develops a problem, you may take it to the pits to repair. There is a small penalty. You may not add lubricant or weight (beyond 5 ounces), but you may make other adjustments! If you do this, check out with your Track Staff before leaving. Return to that same Staff member for instruction. Everybody, Good Luck! And Good Racing! Finals Speech: Congratulations! You have qualified to be a Finalist! You racers will compete against each other for lowest total of your heat times. You will race once on each lane. Every heat counts. You will be called to race by name (or number). Pay attention and stay alert. Good Luck! And Good Racing!